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mathematically we can calculate each possible final score probability by multiplying each home goal probability by each away goal probability. Here you can see the results. Final sports betting live tips score calculation MATH vs ACTUAL. AWAY team goal distribution POISSON vs ACTUAL. Math (Poisson)) works quite well for most of the scores but not all: Mathematical model differs most at 0-0, 0-1 and 1-2 results. Poisson results here are quite accurately showing goal probabilities per team except college football picks missouri for the high number of goals for away team (which has much lower goal average)).